Declining Enrollment in K-12 Education
We’re tracking the issue that’s affecting districts across the country and driving education news
What You Need to Know
Â
Across the country and in most states, enrollment in K-12 public schools is steadily declining. These enrollment trends will profoundly change district and state budgets, as public schools — which educate around 90% of K-12 students in the U.S. — are funded primarily on a per-pupil basis.
These changes aren’t ending any time soon — this is the new normal for most states. Federal data project that 40 states will experience further losses between 2022 and 2031. The trends fueling these declines show no signs of slowing, either. While falling birth rates are the primary factor, slowing immigration and the expansion of private school options and home-schooling also play a role.
The nation’s public education system will ultimately pay the price. Enrollment declines could cost states $11.5 billion annually by the 2030-31 school year. And as overall enrollment shrinks, the students who need support will continue to be left behind. The share of K-12 English learner students, students with disabilities, and students from low-income families is growing even as budgets tighten.
Where do districts and states go from here? Bellwether offers timely analysis and insights on enrollment declines and what they mean for students, families, school leaders, and policymakers.
Interested in Learning More?
Follow Bellwether’s work on declining enrollment, including publications, news media coverage, and digital events.
Publications
News and Commentary
- Public schools in a bind amid enrollment declines (The Hill)
- Bellwether warns of school closures, consolidations ahead (K-12 Dive)
- How school closures provide an opportunity to create better high schools (Ed Source)
- One school, nine students. CA pays over $100,000 per kid to keep small schools open (CalMatters)
- Does a swirl of vouchers and closures represent a spiral for Texas schools? (Dallas Observer)
- States, districts grapple with declining enrollment (K-12 Dive)
- 100 students in a school meant for 1,000: Inside Chicago’s refusal to deal with its nearly empty schools (Chalkbeat)
- As enrollment declines and staff grows, Louisiana public schools may soon face a reckoning (NOLA.com)
- Fewer kids are going to California public schools. Is there a right way to close campuses? (CalMatters)
- As enrollments decline, state leaders should help districts mitigate school closure pressures (EdSource)
- Report details severity of declining enrollment since before pandemic (EdSource)
- Declining enrollment is leading to school closures. How can districts limit the harm to their most vulnerable students? (Bellwether blog)
Digital Events
What do district leaders wish they’d known before closing schools?
In this conversation, Bellwether brings together superintendents, researchers, and practitioners who have been directly involved in school closure efforts across Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. They discuss what it takes to navigate these decisions effectively — from community engagement and communications to implementation and transition planning — and share hard-won lessons for leaders facing similar challenges.
Contact Us
To learn more about Bellwether’s work on declining enrollment, reach out to Carrie Hahnel at carrie.hahnel@bellwether.org.
