How Student Enrollment Declines Are Affecting Education Budgets, Explained in 10 Figures

 

Introduction

Across the country, enrollment in K-12 public schools is declining. With about 90% of K-12 students attending public schools, which are funded primarily by local and state dollars, these enrollment trends will profoundly change district and state budgets.¹

Most states fund school districts on a per-pupil basis. When enrollment declines, states can either save money — because fewer students generate revenue for their districts — or maintain spending and allow per-pupil funding to rise. At the district level, however, enrollment losses usually result in reduced state funding. District leaders facing steep and persistent enrollment declines must either shrink spending, often by reducing the number of staff or closing schools, or raise additional local dollars to compensate for the state funding loss. These adjustments take time because schools have many fixed costs, including administration, maintenance, and utilities, and because state or locally mandated staffing ratios can limit options for staff reductions.

Concurrently, district leaders have also faced budget pressures from rising costs, federal spending reductions, and competing budgetary priorities.² Since 2021, inflation has been persistently high, and school systems have faced especially large cost growth for facilities construction, special education, and health insurance.³ The expiration of $190 billion in federal Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief funding in September 2024 and cuts to social safety net programs have placed further strain on state and district budgets.⁴ Collectively, these factors and declining enrollment have made it challenging for many districts to maintain level services year-over-year.

This analysis illustrates current and projected trends in public school enrollment in 10 figures. It also offers recommendations for district and state leaders confronting enrollment-related budgetary pressures, including suggestions and strategies for engaging communities in difficult budget decisions, aligning staffing and funding policies with enrollment trends, and ensuring all students have access to high-quality learning opportunities.

How Is Public K-12 Enrollment Changing?

Throughout the 2010s, national K-12 public school enrollment increased gradually (Figure 1). However, enrollment decreased by 3% from fall 2019 to fall 2024. The most significant enrollment declines occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting 39 states from fall 2019 to fall 2022.⁵ Notably, 18 states were already experiencing enrollment declines before the pandemic, which only accelerated these trends.⁶ Although there was a slight recovery between fall 2021 and fall 2022 nationally, enrollment fell further between fall 2022 and fall 2024 — leaving enrollment lower in 2024 than it was in fall 2010.⁷ Federal projections suggest this trend will continue, with an anticipated 6% decline, or 2.7 million fewer students, between fall 2022 and fall 2031. However, actual enrollment losses have been smaller than projected since the release of the most recent federal enrollment projections in 2022.

 

FIGURE 1

Over the past decade, public school enrollment declined nationally and is projected to continue to decline through at least fall 2031.

Sources: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), “Table 203.20,” 2026;⁸ NCES, “Table 203.20,” 2023;⁹ NCES, “Table 203.10,” 2023.¹⁰

 

Currently, elementary cohorts in public schools are smaller than cohorts in secondary grades (Figure 2). Nationally, the first-grade cohort is 14% smaller than the ninth-grade cohort. This pattern indicates that K-12 enrollment will likely continue to decline as larger, older cohorts are replaced by smaller, younger cohorts. This pattern is also present in nearly all states. In fall 2024, 45 states had first-grade cohorts at least 5% smaller than their ninth-grade cohorts.

 

FIGURE 2

Across the country, younger elementary cohorts are smaller than older secondary cohorts, signaling continued declines in K-12 enrollment.

Where Is Public K-12 Enrollment Changing?

In recent years, public K-12 enrollment has declined in the vast majority of states and districts and is expected to continue dropping in the next five years.¹² In 2023, NCES estimated that 40 states and the District of Columbia would experience enrollment declines between fall 2022 and fall 2031 (Figure 3). In eight states — California, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and West Virginia — enrollment was predicted to decline by more than 10%.

 

FIGURE 3

40 states and the District of Columbia are projected to experience public school enrollment declines between 2022 and 2031.

Source: NCES, “Table 203.20,” 2023.¹³

 

Although 68% of public school districts experienced enrollment declines between fall 2019 and fall 2023, some schools have experienced steeper losses than others.¹⁴ Geographic location is a strong predictor of school enrollment trends (Figure 4). Rather than treating communities as simply urban or rural, this analysis classifies schools along a continuum based on their proximity to urban centers, distinguishing among cities, suburbs, communities on the edge of urban areas (fringe), those farther away (distant), and those farthest from population centers (remote).¹⁵

Over the last decade, public school enrollment decreased by 6% in city schools. Enrollment also declined in distant schools by 5% and in remote schools by 6%. During the same period, suburban school enrollment declined by 2%, while enrollment in fringe schools grew by 6%. These patterns suggest that public school enrollment has increased on the edges of metropolitan regions but decreased in other areas.

 

FIGURE 4

City, remote, and distant public schools have experienced the steepest enrollment declines since 2015.

Why Is Public K-12 Enrollment Declining?

The primary factor affecting declining school enrollment is a reduction in the school-age population, driven primarily by a decrease in the U.S. birth rate. The decline in birth rates (the number of births per 1,000 women each year) started in 2008, coinciding with the Great Recession.¹⁹ Between 2012 and 2024, the national birth rate decreased by 15%.²⁰ This brought the U.S. fertility rate to an all-time low of 1.6 children per woman in 2024, which is below the population replacement fertility rate.²¹ Every state and the District of Columbia also reported declining birth rates of at least 6% during this same time frame (Figure 5).

 

FIGURE 5

Every state and the District of Columbia have experienced declines in birth rates over the past decade, signaling continued declines in K-12 enrollment.

Sources: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), “About Natality, 2007-2024,” 2026;²² CDC, “About Natality, 2016-2024 Expanded,” 2026.²³

 

Although every state is experiencing birth rate declines, some states are also losing more students due to interstate migration. Between 2023 and 2024, about 7.2 million people moved between states.²⁴ New York, California, and Illinois — the school districts with the first-, second-, and fourth-largest school districts in the nation — experienced the largest population exodus. Conversely, Florida and Texas experienced the largest net migration increases (Figure 6). These trends predate the pandemic, as these states have had the highest and lowest state migration patterns for the past decade.²⁵

 

FIGURE 6

Between 2023 and 2024, California had the largest population loss from interstate migration, and Texas had the largest population gain.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “State-to-State Migration Flows: 2024,” 2026.²⁶  

International immigration and federal immigration policies also affect public school enrollment trends. Between 2011 and 2018, net international migration in the U.S. was between 750,000 and 1 million people per year before declining to 250,000 people per year in 2021.²⁷ Following the COVID-19 pandemic, net international migration increased to 2.7 million in 2024, before falling by 50% to 1.3 million in 2025.²⁸ Additionally, recent immigration enforcement actions under the Trump administration have been associated with reductions in student enrollment and attendance.²⁹

Population decreases due to lower birth rates, interstate migration, or international migration reduce district enrollment, which can reduce the state funding districts receive through K-12 funding formulas.³⁰ In the longer term, population declines can lead to reductions in a state’s labor force and major revenue streams, such as income and sales tax, which can negatively affect state education funding.³¹

How Does Private School Choice Influence Enrollment Trends?

Increases in private and home-school enrollment play a minor but notable role in public school enrollment shifts. Nationally, private school enrollment increased by roughly 205,450 students, or 4%, from fall 2011 to fall 2021 (the most recent year of available data).³² There is significant variance across states, ranging from a decrease of 47,830 students (18%) in Illinois to an increase of 145,870 students (43%) in Florida. Overall, private school enrollment increased in 31 states and the District of Columbia from fall 2011 to fall 2021 (Figure 7). Some of this increase in private school enrollment may be explained by pandemic-fueled opt-out.³³ During the pandemic years, parents also increasingly turned to home-schooling options for their children.³⁴ Nearly 6% of all school-age children nationwide were home-schooled during school year (SY) 2023-24 compared with 3% in 2019.³⁵

 

FIGURE 7

Private school enrollment increased in 31 states and the District of Columbia from fall 2011 to fall 2021.

Sources: NCES, “Table 205.80,” 2023;³⁶ NCES, “Table 203.20,” 2023.³⁷

 

How Does Public School Choice Influence Enrollment Trends?

Enrollment in charter schools has grown over the past decade, and this growth has coincided with declines in traditional district school enrollment. From fall 2012 to fall 2022, charter school enrollment increased by 1.5 million students (64%), while enrollment in district schools declined by 1.6 million students (3%).⁴¹ In the initial years of the pandemic, charter school enrollment increased while district school enrollment declined.⁴² One reason may be that charter schools were often able to adapt more quickly to remote learning and the changing circumstances during the pandemic than their traditional district school counterparts.⁴³

From fall 2012 to fall 2022, 42 U.S. states and the District of Columbia saw increased charter enrollment.⁴⁴ Six states — Arizona (53%), California (37%), Florida (87%), New York (125%), North Carolina (179%), and Texas (118%) — saw enrollment increases of more than 80,000 students, while 17 states saw increases of between 10,000 and 50,000 students.⁴⁵ In the country’s five largest school districts, charter school enrollment increased from fall 2012 to fall 2023, while district enrollment declined (Figure 8). Enrollment in virtual public schools also surged during the pandemic years: The number of virtual public schools increased by 78% from fall 2019 (691) to fall 2023 (1,232).⁴⁶

Because state education funding is dependent on enrollment or attendance in all states, traditional public school districts lose revenue for each student who decides not to enroll.⁴⁷ However, these fiscal effects vary depending on state funding formulas, charter school landscapes, and governance structures.

 

FIGURE 8

In the country’s five largest school districts, charter school enrollment increased from fall 2012 to fall 2023 while district enrollment declined.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, “2024 Public Elementary-Secondary Education Finance Data,” 2026;⁴⁸ National Alliance for Public Charter Schools, “Where Are Charter Schools Located?,” 2025;⁴⁹ NCES, “Table 215.30,” 2015;⁵⁰ National Alliance for Public Charter Schools, A Growing Movement: America’s Largest Charter School Communities, 2013.⁵¹ 

How Have Student Needs Changed Amid Enrollment Declines?

While total enrollment is declining, enrollment for English learner (EL) students and students with disabilities has increased overall and as a proportion of total enrollment (Figure 9). EL student enrollment nationwide increased by 333,607 students (7%) between fall 2013 and fall 2021 (most recent year of available data), and the enrollment of students with disabilities served under Part B of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act increased by 795,329 students (12%) over the same period.⁵² All states except Michigan had an increase in special education enrollment, with 24 states seeing an increase in students with disabilities even as total enrollment fell.⁵³ Forty states and the District of Columbia also reported an increase in EL student enrollment, with 20 states experiencing an increase in EL students while overall enrollment continued to decline.⁵⁴

These demographic shifts indicate that while overall enrollment is declining, the educational needs of public school students are increasing because students with disabilities and EL students require greater support in school.⁵⁵ As a result, some districts may face rising costs even as their revenues fall. State education formulas that allocate more funding for EL students, students with disabilities, and other high-need student groups could help offset these budgetary pressures.⁵⁶

 

FIGURE 9

While total public school enrollment has declined, enrollment for EL students and students with disabilities has increased.

Sources: NCES, “Table 204.20,” 2024;⁵⁷ NCES, “Table 204.40,” 2023;⁵⁸ NCES, “Table 203.20,” 2023.⁵⁹

How Will Districts Align Budgets With New Enrollment Realities?

As districts lose enrollment, they often experience a concurrent reduction in state funding. In the absence of state-level hold harmless policies, many districts will need to reduce staff, scale back programs, and close or consolidate schools to align their budgets with new enrollment realities. This can be challenging because schools require a baseline number of staff and facilities to function effectively, regardless of student enrollment numbers, making it difficult to scale down operations proportionately. Furthermore, schools cannot reduce teaching positions until they lose enough students to reduce entire class sections.

Nationally, however, the declines in student enrollment have yet to equate to reductions in school staffing (Figure 10). While K-12 public school enrollment shrank by 426,058 students (1%) in the U.S. from fall 2013 to fall 2022, the total staffing increased by 607,569 staff members (10%). The largest percentage increase was among school district administrative staff (e.g., officials, administrators, and instructional coordinators). These positions increased by 49,671 staff members (36%). During this same period, the number of school instructional and administrative staff (e.g., teachers, principals, guidance counselors) increased by 331,750 staff members (8%).

 

FIGURE 10

Public school enrollment declined over the past decade, while school staffing levels increased.

Sources: NCES, “Table 231.10,” 2024;⁶⁰ NCES, “Table 203.20,” 2023;⁶¹ NCES, “Table 216.10,” 2023.⁶²

 

Although public school enrollment is at a 15-year low, the number of public schools in operation is at a 15-year high. This means that the number of public schools in operation has increased since 2010, while student enrollment has declined.⁶³ As enrollment continues to decline, however, many districts are considering closing or consolidating schools, and some already have. Houston Independent School District, the School District of Philadelphia, and the Cleveland Metropolitan School District each approved plans to close more than a dozen schools in advance of SY26-27.⁶⁴ In 2024, Broward County Public Schools in Florida and Boston Public Schools unveiled multiyear plans to consolidate schools.⁶⁵ In response to steeper declines in remote and distant schools, legislators in Vermont and Wisconsin have explored legislation aimed at consolidating school districts.⁶⁶

This trend of K-12 school closures and district consolidations is likely to accelerate across the country as districts grapple with the dual challenges of declining enrollment and related financial pressures.⁶⁷

What Can District and State Leaders Do?

In the coming years, state and district leaders must respond to the pressures that declining enrollment places on their education budgets. While there are no easy solutions, the considerations below can help guide policymakers as they make difficult decisions about funding, facilities, and long-term sustainability.

 

Considerations for District Leaders

As public school district leaders navigate the challenges of declining enrollment, including staff reductions, program reductions, and potential school closures, effective leadership is crucial to ensuring the sustainability and quality of education.⁶⁸ Leaders must engage community members in budget decisions, be transparent about budget reductions, develop long-term staffing strategies, and focus on program improvements.

1. Engage community members in budget decisions. District leaders should involve community members, families, and educators in the budgeting process to build trust and ensure alignment with community priorities. This can include forming advisory boards, hosting town halls, and making budgetary materials accessible to increase transparency, among other engagement tactics.
2. Use an inclusive, accessible, and transparent process when deciding how to reduce programs or consolidate schools. When considering which schools will be affected by program reductions or closures, district leaders should implement an inclusive, accessible, and transparent decision-making process that involves affected communities.⁶⁹ This includes forming committees with diverse representation, sharing data, establishing clear criteria for evaluating options, and providing multiple opportunities for stakeholder input.
3. Develop long-term staffing strategies that align hiring and succession plans with enrollment forecasts. As enrollment declines, district leaders should create staffing plans that account for changing student populations. This should involve analyzing demographic trends, projecting future enrollment, and adjusting hiring practices accordingly. Leaders should also develop succession plans to ensure continuity in key positions as the district evolves.
4. Create a plan for how the district will improve programs and services even as it shrinks its overall footprint. Leaders should prioritize strategic improvements over cost-cutting, focusing on building smaller but stronger systems. This should involve reallocating resources to enhance a smaller number of schools and programs, revising zoning or enrollment policies to ensure all students have access to high-quality schools and programs, investing in high-impact programs such as instructional coaching, prioritizing high-demand and engaging student services and course-taking opportunities, and deepening community partnerships to provide integrated student supports.⁷⁰ Leaders can create a more efficient and effective school system by aligning budget decisions with the district’s vision and evidence-based strategies.
5. Align facility master planning with enrollment and fiscal realities. As enrollment declines, districts often face the challenge of maintaining school buildings that are both aging and underutilized. As enrollment-driven revenues fall, facility costs (e.g., maintenance, utilities, modernization, debt service) often remain fixed, increasing facility costs on a per-student basis. With these fixed costs in mind, district leaders should devise facility master plans using enrollment projections to coordinate school closures and consolidations, facility investments, and bond campaigns with broader budget and reorganization efforts. District leaders should also explore opportunities to lease, sell, or repurpose closed and underutilized facilities to support community needs, generate revenue, and better align the district’s footprint with enrollment realities.⁷¹

 

Considerations for State Leaders

As districts work to mitigate the impact of enrollment declines, state education leaders and policymakers also play a key role. In addition to continuing to invest in and support public education systems, they should also support districts in addressing the financial realities of declining enrollment while minimizing negative and disproportionate impacts on students and communities.

1. Analyze how enrollment trends vary across the state, and identify growing inefficiencies. State policymakers should review their statewide enrollment trends and study the factors driving enrollment change, including demographic and population trends (e.g., birth rates, immigration, migration) and educational choices (e.g., private schools, home-schooling). Especially considering how enrollment trends might vary by geography, the state should develop plans and strategies for supporting districts based on their unique context. For example, state leaders may need to support fringe schools in navigating overcrowding and school expansions, while schools in other regions may need guidance tailored to a declining enrollment picture. As part of this, state policymakers should explore where district consolidations might produce economies of scale and improve school quality. 
2. Align state school funding policies with changing enrollment and student needs. State policymakers have several funding policy tools available to better align school finance systems with changing enrollment and student needs.⁷² One such approach is the use of weighted, student-based funding formulas, which allow states to target additional funding to districts serving larger concentrations of students who are economically disadvantaged, have been identified for special education services, or are EL students.⁷³ By incorporating multiple weights, these formulas ensure funding is differentiated to meet diverse student needs.
3. Provide forecasting tools, technical assistance, and system redesign support to build local capacity for managing change. As district leaders navigate staffing reductions, program reductions, school consolidations, and facilities projects, state leaders can play a key role in helping districts contextualize their unique enrollment picture. State leaders should also support districts in understanding how budget decisions might affect different student groups, with a focus on historically marginalized students. Providing districts with frameworks and tools for conducting these analyses can help ensure that decisions are data-driven and consider how different student groups will be affected.
4. Communicate strategically to engage community members and strengthen public confidence. State leaders should provide districts with guidance on effectively engaging community members in decisions about realigning budgets, including school closures and staff reductions, with the aim of transparency and inclusivity. State support can include training, technical assistance, and toolkits on promising practices. Engaging community members in collaborative decision-making can strengthen coalitions around difficult, but necessary, policy changes.
5. Avoid permanent hold harmless policies that decouple state funding from student need. During the pandemic, 22 states implemented temporary hold harmless policies that froze individual district state education funding changes based on enrollment.⁷⁴ As districts lose state funding due to enrollment declines, state leaders will likely continue to face pressure to reinstate or maintain these policies to prevent school closures and staff reductions. A temporary hold harmless policy could give declining-enrollment districts additional time to make necessary budgetary adjustments. However, state leaders should avoid making these policies permanent because such policies would subsidize districts for students they no longer serve, undermining state school funding formulas and diverting resources from growing or higher-need districts.⁷⁵