August 2025

Systems Under Strain

Warning Signs Pointing Toward a Rise in School Closures

By Christine Dickason, Paul Beach, Carrie Hahnel, and Andy Jacob

Introduction

Less than 1% of America’s K-12 schools closed in school year (SY) 2023-24, suggesting that districts are relatively stable.1 But that figure masks a stark reality: Enrollment is shrinking, budgets are tightening, and the fiscal cushions that protected districts in recent years are eroding. The era of rare school closures may be coming to an end.

Bellwether has previously documented the scope of enrollment declines across the country, highlighting declining birth rates as the primary driver, with interstate migration and shifting school choice policies and preferences also playing a role in some states.2 Between fiscal years (FY) 2022 and 2031, federal estimates project a 5.5% decline in the total number of students enrolled in public schools.3

Yet despite widespread enrollment decline, most districts still have roughly the same number of schools. Although some districts may have reduced staffing or adopted other cost-saving measures to help balance budgets, COVID-19 relief dollars from the federal government, coupled with strong post-pandemic state economies, have shielded districts from taking more sweeping actions like school consolidations in recent years. That may be changing.

This analysis draws on data from 9,300 districts across the country to identify and explore several leading indicators that, taken together, suggest school closures may become more frequent in the coming months and years. The analysis also includes indicators from each of the 9,300 districts. These indicators reveal:

  • Steep enrollment declines in specific regions and districts, reshaping where schools need to be located and staffed to meet community needs.
  • Potentially significant revenue losses tied to shrinking enrollment, putting considerable pressure on district budgets and prompting difficult choices about resource allocation.
  • Declining average school size, signaling an increase in underutilized buildings that may be costly to maintain.

To better understand how districts are responding to these dynamics, this analysis also takes a closer look at 17 school districts across the country — diverse in size and geography — that are actively considering closures or consolidations. These district profiles detail the magnitude of enrollment declines, the budget pressures these districts are facing, and the school closure and consolidation deliberations they are engaged in.

This analysis concludes with key takeaways for district leaders, policymakers, and stakeholders as they confront the complex realities of planning for fewer students — and potentially, fewer schools — in the years ahead.

 

METHODOLOGY

This analysis examines the patterns and leading indicators that may signal a future increase in K-12 school closures, focusing on trends in enrollment, school size, and per-pupil revenue. This analysis draws from two primary sources:

  • Enrollment and school characteristics are sourced from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Common Core of Data from SY19-20 to SY23-24. Enrollment data from NCES capture the “total number of students (ungraded and prekindergarten through 13th grade) as reported by the district.”
  • Revenue data is drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of School System Finances (F-33) for the same time period.

This analysis focuses on traditional public school districts and traditional public schools in all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia. Exclusions include:

  • Charter schools, due to differing governance, revenue structures, and closure considerations.
  • Districts with an enrollment of fewer than 500 students as of SY23-24, as small fluctuations in student enrollment can lead to substantial percentage changes, potentially complicating the interpretation of broader patterns.
  • Districts composed entirely of charter schools.
  • Districts with missing enrollment data for either SY19-20 or SY23-24.
  • Districts with missing revenue data for either SY19-20 or SY23-24 (excluded from the per-pupil revenue analysis).

After applying these filters, the final analytic sample includes 9,300 districts nationwide, representing about 47% of all districts and 91.5% of all students.

 

The Majority of Districts Are Experiencing Declining Enrollment

Public K-12 enrollment across the United States is on a downward trajectory — and this trend is expected to continue through at least FY31.4 While enrollment declines vary in scope and severity by region and community, the overall pattern is clear: Many school districts are serving fewer students than they used to.

Districts saw significant enrollment declines during the pandemic (Figure 1). While there was a slight recovery between SY20-21 and SY21-22, enrollment numbers have not recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Among the districts in Bellwether’s sample, 68% experienced enrollment declines between SY19-20 and SY23-24, representing a loss of approximately 2 million students. Enrollment declines were widespread across all regions, with the highest share of districts experiencing declines in the West (76%) and Northeast (73%), followed by the Midwest (67%) and South (60%).

Figure 1: Enrollment Change By District, United States 
SY19-20 to SY23-24 

As Enrollment Declines, Districts Lose Revenue

As student enrollment declines, so does the funding a school receives. Because state and local funding for public schools is typically allocated through formulas largely based on student enrollment, even modest enrollment losses can lead to substantial reductions in district budgets. Between 2020 and 2023, 42 states enacted temporary or permanent funding hold-harmless policies (i.e., measures designed to insulate districts from funding declines due to enrollment losses) for K-12 education; however, these policies likely have not fully protected districts from lost revenue.5

To illustrate the potential scale of the financial impact, Bellwether modeled hypothetical district-level state and local revenue losses or gains due to changes in enrollment between SY19-20 and SY23-24. The analysis multiplies each district’s per-pupil state and local revenue in SY19-20 by its total enrollment change over the five-school-year time period. This offers a rough estimate of how much revenue each district may have lost or gained, absent state hold-harmless policies and other efforts to mitigate the fiscal effects of declining enrollment. Estimates may be less relevant in districts that are fully funded through local revenue sources, such as high property-wealth communities, since those districts‘ finances are less dependent on enrollment. 

For many districts, the projected losses are substantial (Figure 2). While some districts have grown, the majority have seen enrollment declines that could translate into millions of dollars in cumulative revenue loss. For a district generating fewer revenues through its state funding formula, this creates fiscal stress that can prompt difficult decisions about staffing, program offerings, and facility use. Of the 6,308 districts in this sample that experienced a decline in enrollment, Bellwether’s analysis projects the median district may have lost about $1.5 million in revenue between SY19-20 and SY23-24. The 100-largest districts in terms of SY23-24 enrollment may have collectively missed out on roughly $5.2 billion in funding, with the median of these 100 districts losing about $37.4 million. 

Figure 2: Modeled Revenue Changes Due to Enrollment Changes By District, United States 
SY19-20 to SY23-24 

Note: Analysis of the 100-largest districts excludes all New York City districts, which are missing revenue data from the U.S. Census F-33 dataset as of July 2025.

With Few Districts Closing Schools, Many Schools Are Underenrolled

Most K-12 districts operate about the same number of schools as they used to, despite educating fewer students. When school districts serve fewer students but maintain the same physical footprint, they end up operating with more empty seats. In general, it is costly to maintain an underutilized school site. School buildings come with many relatively fixed costs, including heating and cooling, maintenance and repair, and custodial costs.

Further, small school sites are often more expensive to staff on a per-student basis. For example, every school needs a principal, regardless of the number of students. It may also need an office manager, counselor, or librarian, among other critical positions. And each classroom must be staffed by a teacher, whether that class is filled to the maximum size allowable in its district or state, or whether it is filled with mostly empty seats. Spreading all of these costs across an underenrolled school site is not only inefficient but also strains the school’s ability to offer robust programming, course opportunities, and services for every student.

Between SY19-20 and SY23-24, average enrollment per school declined across many districts nationwide, signaling a systemic rise in underenrolled buildings (Figure 3). This means that even when districts have not lost enough students to close entire schools, many sites may be operating below capacity. Of the 6,308 districts that experienced a decline in enrollment in Bellwether’s sample, the median district saw an average school size drop of 25 students — about one full classroom per school. These drops are even steeper in some districts. Large city districts with declining enrollments saw schools shrink by 57 students, on average. And overall, more than 1,500 districts experienced an average school size drop of 50 or more students. When average school sizes shrink substantially, districts may struggle to operate efficiently and lose out on the cost savings that come with economies of scale.6

Figure 3: Average School Size By District, United States 
SY19-20 to SY23-24 

Districts Across the Country Are Grappling With Budget Pressures

Across the country, a growing number of K-12 districts are grappling with the budget pressures introduced by declining enrollment. As they seek to align their resources with the programs, services, and opportunities they offer students, many districts are beginning to contemplate school closures or consolidations. While temporary funding (i.e., COVID-19 relief dollars) and a strong economy protected many districts from having to make these difficult decisions in recent years, the expiration of that funding and shifting economic conditions are changing the reality many districts are facing. Districts may consider reducing staffing, programs, and services first, but eventually, school closures may become necessary.

The map below highlights 17 districts — diverse in size and geography — that are currently navigating such pressures (Figure 4). Information gathered from these districts reveals three key trends: 

  • Most districts profiled in this analysis are only considering closures at the elementary school level. While elementary schools may be the first to feel the impacts of declining birth rates, the long-term trends indicate that middle and high schools may eventually see steeper declines as well. As smaller and smaller cohorts work their way through the K-12 system, middle and high schools may also need to eventually consider closure or consolidation.7
  • Districts often begin with a larger closure plan but scale back due to a variety of factors. For example, in 2024, Alaska’s Anchorage School Board voted to close only two elementary schools, despite initially considering four schools for closure.8 Public pressure was likely the main reason the other two schools will remain open, but the board has said that future closures will be necessary to right-size the budget. Similarly, San Francisco Unified School District announced plans to close 11 elementary schools and two high schools in October 2024.9 But those schools remain open, due to a change in plans at the direction of the district’s Board of Education and the new superintendent.10 This pattern of scaling back proposed closures is evident in districts across the country, including Seattle Public Schools.11
  • Districts regularly opt to reduce staff or services before — or in conjunction with — school closures. For example, Missouri’s Riverview Gardens School District is planning to eliminate nearly 160 positions; while the district is also considering school closures, no decisions have been made as of June 2025. Nevada’s Washoe County School District is combating its deficit through changes in worker’s compensation rates, increases in facility use fees, and a drawing down of the contingency fund, in addition to closing one middle school.12

Click on each district to learn more about its local context, the financial and enrollment trends it faces, and the school closure decisions leaders are weighing in response.

Figure 4: Select Districts Navigating Budget Pressures, United States 
SY19-20 to SY23-24

Note: For enrollment data, some districts report average daily membership (ADM) rather than average enrollment. For budget deficits and operating budgets, FY25 amounts are included where FY26 data are not yet available. An asterisk (*) indicates information provided directly by districts.

Conclusion

District enrollment declines, the resulting revenue loss, and the apparent increase in underutilized schools suggest that K-12 school closures and consolidations may become more frequent in the coming months and years. Bellwether’s analysis shows that among the 9,300 districts sampled:

  • 68% experienced enrollment declines, representing a loss of approximately 2 million students between SY19-20 and SY23-24.
  • Of the 6,308 districts that experienced a decline in enrollment, the median district may have lost about $1.5 million in revenue between SY19-20 and SY23-24, absent hold-harmless policies, other financial mitigation efforts, and policies that shield districts with significant local revenue from the fiscal effects of enrollment loss. 
  • Of the 6,308 districts that experienced a decline in enrollment, the median district saw an average school size drop of 25 students — about one full classroom per school.

School closures can be disruptive for students, families, educators, and the community, especially when the process is contentious or disrupts student learning.13 This disruption can lead to long-term negative academic consequences and damage community trust if not handled with care. Strong public communications and transparency, support for displaced students and educators, and inclusive decision-making can help mitigate the negative impacts of school closures and strengthen community-district relations.14

Yet in many communities, avoiding tough decisions, like closing underenrolled schools, can also have long-term negative consequences for students. When districts operate too many schools for the number of students enrolled, resources become thinly spread, often necessitating cuts in programs, services, or course offerings. Fiscal inefficiency and a constant cycle of fiscal crises can further erode community confidence.

A smaller district footprint does not have to mean diminished opportunities for students. Districts that proactively respond to declining enrollment can use this period of fiscal transition to realign budgets in ways that preserve and even expand student opportunities. It can be a chance to reimagine the school experience, including when, where, and how teaching and learning occur.15

By confronting these challenges with transparency and intentionality, district leaders, policymakers, and stakeholders can turn a moment of constraint into a catalyst for smarter, more equitable, and more sustainable public education systems. 

 

OTHER RESOURCES

Endnotes

  1. Sofoklis Goulas, Enrollment Declines and Permanent Closures in Public Schools, IZA Discussion Paper No. 17902 (Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics, May 2025), https://docs.iza.org/dp17902.pdf.
  2. Krista Kaput, Carrie Hahnel, and Biko McMillan, How Student Enrollment Declines Are Affecting Education Budgets, Explained in 10 Figures (Bellwether, September 2024), https://bellwether.org/publications/how-student-enrollment-declines-are-affecting-education-budgets/?activeTab=1.
  3. Ibid.
  4. Ibid.
  5. Martin F. Lueken, How States Protect Funding for K–12 Public Schools (EdChoice, November 2023), accessed June 19, 2025, https://www.edchoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Hold-Harmless-POLICY-SCAN-1.pdf.
  6. Michael Griffith, “In Education Funding, Size Does Matter” (blog), Education Commission of the States, August 7, 2017, https://www.ecs.org/in-education-funding-size-does-matter/.
  7. Paul Beach, Carrie Hahnel, and Tanvi Kodali, Navigating Change: Strategies to Strengthen California High Schools Amid Declining Enrollment (Bellwether, September 11, 2024), https://bellwether.org/publications/navigating-change/.
  8. Tim Rockey, “Anchorage School Board Votes to Close 2 Schools Next Year,” Alaska Public Media, December 18, 2024, https://alaskapublic.org/news/education/2024-12-18/anchorage-school-board-votes-to-close-two-schools-next-year.
  9. Carly Severn and Katie DeBenedetti, “SFUSD Closures: Which Schools Will Be Affected, and What Do Families Need to Know?,” KQED News, October 8, 2024, https://www.kqed.org/news/12008524/sfusd-closures-which-schools-will-be-affected-and-what-do-families-need-to-know.
  10. “No School Closures in the 2025–26 School Year,” San Francisco Unified School District, updated October 31, 2024, https://www.sfusd.edu/resource-alignment-initiative/no-school-closures-2025-26-school-year.
  11. Sami West, “4 Seattle Schools Up for Closure Revealed,” KUOW, October 24, 2024, https://www.kuow.org/stories/4-seattle-schools-up-for-closure-revealed.
  12. Washoe County School District, Board of Trustees Work Session – June 10, 2025, https://washoeschools.diligent.community/document/50541/?lastModified=638847341721030000; Sophie Lincoln, “Washoe County School Board Votes to Close Two Middle Schools for New Projects,” FOX Reno, updated January 31, 2025, https://foxreno.com/news/local/wcsd-trustees-approve-closure-of-pine-traner-middle-schools-to-allow-new-prek-5-schools.
  13. Matthew F. Larsen, Does Closing Schools Close Doors? The Effect of High School Closings on Achievement and Attainment (working paper, Tulane University, 2014), https://www2.tulane.edu/~mflarsen/uploads/2/2/5/4/22549316/mflarsen_schoolclosings.pdf; Matt Barnum, “Five Things We’ve Learned from a Decade of Research on School Closures,” Chalkbeat, February 5, 2019, https://www.chalkbeat.org/2019/2/5/21106706/five-things-we-ve-learned-from-a-decade-of-research-on-school-closures; Quentin Brummet, “The Effect of School Closings on Student Achievement,” Journal of Public Economics 119 (2014): 108–124, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2014.06.010.
  14. Christine Dickason, Paul Beach, Carrie Hahnel, Julia DeBettencourt, and Akeshia Craven-Howell, Navigating Declining Enrollment: A Toolkit for California District Leaders to Design Stronger Schools and Systems (Bellwether, April 10, 2025), https://bellwether.org/publications/navigating-declining-enrollment/.
  15. Dickason, Beach, Hahnel, deBettencourt, and Craven-Howell, Navigating Declining Enrollment: A Toolkit for California District Leaders to Design Stronger Schools and Systems; Beach, Hahnel, and Kodali, Navigating Change: Strategies to Strengthen California High Schools Amid Declining Enrollment.

Sources: Figure 4 District Profiles

Dallas County School District, Alabama

Phoenix Elementary School District #1, Arizona

San Francisco Unified School District, California

Woodland Park School District, Colorado

New Haven Public Schools, Connecticut

Fulton County Schools, Georgia

Evanston/Skokie School District 65, Illinois

Boston Public Schools, Massachusetts

Grand Haven Area Public Schools, Michigan

Riverview Gardens School District, Missouri

Washoe County School District, Nevada

Albuquerque Public Schools, New Mexico

Mount Vernon City School District, New York

Pittsburgh Public Schools, Pennsylvania

Fort Worth Independent School District, Texas

Lubbock Independent School District, Texas

School District of Waukesha, Wisconsin

Acknowledgments, About the Authors, About Bellwether

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the many experts who gave their time and shared their knowledge with us to inform our work, including the school districts that engaged with us on the district profiles. Thank you also to the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation for its financial support of this project.

We would also like to thank our Bellwether colleagues Teresa Mooney, Jennifer O’Neal Schiess, Bonnie O’Keefe, and Krista Kaput for their input and Dwan Dube for her support. Thank you to Amy Ribock, Kate Stein, McKenzie Maxson, Zoe Cuddy, Julie Nguyen, Mandy Berman, and Amber Walker for shepherding and disseminating this work, and to Super Copy Editors. All data visualizations in this analysis are created with Flourish. 

The contributions of these individuals and entities significantly enhanced our work; however, any errors in fact or analysis remain the responsibility of the authors.

About the Authors

Mary Wells

Christine Dickason

Christine Dickason is a senior analyst at Bellwether in the Policy and Evaluation practice area. She can be reached at christine.dickason@bellwether.org.

Alex Spurrier

Paul Beach

Paul Beach is an associate partner at Bellwether in the Policy and Evaluation practice area. He can be reached at paul.beach@bellwether.org.

Linea Koehler

Carrie Hahnel

Carrie Hahnel is a senior associate partner at Bellwether in the Policy and Evaluation practice area. She can be reached at carrie.hahnel@bellwether.org.

Mary Wells

Andy Jacob

Andy Jacob is the senior director of external relations at Bellwether and leads the External Relations team. He can be reached at andy.jacob@bellwether.org.

Bellwether is a national nonprofit that exists to transform education to ensure systemically marginalized young people achieve outcomes that lead to fulfilling lives and flourishing communities. Founded in 2010, we work hand in hand with education leaders and organizations to accelerate their impact, inform and influence policy and program design, and share what we learn along the way. For more, visit bellwether.org.

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